Empiriceme · Model · Theory / Model

Adverse Selection

When the better-informed side self-selects, the pool worsens and prices must rise, worsening it further.

Health insurance is the textbook case: as premiums rise, the healthy drop out, the remaining pool is sicker, premiums rise again. This is why mandates and open-enrolment windows exist.

In practice

  • A repair warranty priced for the average appliance attracts owners of the worst ones, so claims rise, so the price rises, so the careful owners drop out.
  • An open salary band set at the market average recruits the people who cannot get more elsewhere.
Further reading
Wikipedia
Subject
Economics & Incentives
Essay
The theories behind every argument about money

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