Every entry in the ledger is dated, attributed, graded for the kind of claim it is, and given a worked case and two examples of it in practice. This page explains how to read that, and where everything lives.
- Colour The stripe on each entry is its register: evidence, model, precept or figure.
- Read Every name opens a page of its own: the claim, where it came from, two examples of it happening, and its standing.
- Browse The home page runs through the whole ledger once, the well known and the funny first. Subjects and the A to Z are the other ways in.
- Find Search covers names, other names, thinkers and definitions, and then the worked cases and examples too.
- Keep Star anything worth returning to. Favourites are saved in your own browser and follow you across every page here.
IWhere things are
The home page is a feed: the whole ledger in one pass. Every entry also has a page of its own with everything recorded about it, and the A to Z lists them all. The subjects page leads to the subject pages, which are readings rather than instruments: one subject at full length, grouped by register, with no controls to work. Search is the instrument, and Reading holds the full definition of an empiriceme, the essay What is empiricalism?, Mill’s Handle and the thought experiments.
If the ledger is missing something, suggest an entry. No account or email address is needed, and every suggestion is checked before anything is added.
Any entry can be linked to directly. empiriceme/goodharts-law.html is its own page, which is the address to share. Links made to the old ledger, such as ledger.html#goodharts-law, still work and arrive at the same page.
IIRegister: the colour on every entry
Register is the one thing this ledger insists on. Many entries here are adages, analogies or paradoxes, and cannot be true or false in the way a measured regularity can. The colour tells you which you are looking at before you read a word.
IIIType: the finer distinction
Within each register, the type names the kind of claim precisely. Narrowing a search by type is the fastest way to separate what can be tested from what cannot.
| Type | Meaning | Entries |
|---|---|---|
| Empirical Regularity | A pattern claimed to hold in data. | |
| Theorem | A formally proved result. | |
| Bias / Effect | A documented deviation in judgement or perception. | |
| Theory / Model | An explanatory account or formal model. | |
| Normative Principle | A statement of how one ought to act or design. | |
| Heuristic / Razor | A rule of thumb for choosing between explanations or actions. | |
| Canon / Maxim | A pre-modern legal or political maxim about institutional behaviour. | |
| Adage / Folk Law | A witticism or maxim, often untestable. Kept for its currency, not its evidence. | |
| Analogy / Metaphor | Borrowed from another domain; the transfer is illustrative, not derived. | |
| Paradox | A result that conflicts with intuition or with itself. |
IVWhat each entry contains
Every entry’s page carries the same fields in the same order. The distinction between the worked case and the examples is the useful one: the worked case is where the claim came from, and the examples are where it turns up.
| Field | What it holds |
|---|---|
| Law | Canonical name. Eponyms take apostrophe-s; multi-author names take an en dash. |
| Type & Subject | Shown above the name on its page, and on every card. |
| Definition | One sentence, phrased so the claim can be judged true or false. |
| Worked case | Provenance: the study, the incident or the number the claim rests on. |
| In practice | Two applied examples, written for this ledger. Where the subject allows, one is institutional and one everyday. |
| Attributed to | Originator where identifiable. “Unattributed” means no source was traceable, which is itself worth knowing. |
| Circa | Year or era of first clear statement. “c.” marks an estimate. |
| Also called | Alternative and cross-domain names. Many entries are better known under a name other than the canonical one. |
| Standing | Contested status, replication caveats, misattributions and lineage. Blank where none apply. |
| Possible explanations | Why the pattern might occur, where accounts have been offered. Several are given where they compete. |
| In its favour | The case for the claim’s usefulness and validity, as its supporters and the evidence make it. |
| Against it | The case its critics and the contrary evidence make. The ledger reports both sides and does not rule between them. |
| Flags | Two, shown beside the name. contested marks a live dispute. in jest marks an entry written tongue-in-cheek, which is never offered as evidence of anything. |
VContested entries
Where a claim is disputed, has failed replication, or is misattributed, the entry says so rather than leaving it out. The dispute is recorded in Standing, and the two examples underneath still show the pattern the claim describes — a reader who cannot see what is being claimed has no way to judge whether it holds.
The contested tag appears beside the entry name, every card in the feed says in one line why, and the Standing control on the search page isolates the entries whose notes record a dispute. It is worth browsing those on their own: the errors are frequently more instructive than the confirmations. Hawthorne, Stanford Prison, Lady Macbeth, social priming, growth mindset and the backfire effect are all here with their replication histories attached.
Political claims are included across the spectrum on the same terms, each with its standing stated. Where two traditions make mirror-image claims, the notes point from one to the other.
A small number of entries are written in jest and carry the in jest flag. They are mock-serious: the form is the ledger’s and the content is a joke, usually about a real pattern that has a duller name elsewhere. The Standing control will show only these or leave them out, and the flag is on the card so nobody meets one unawares.
VIThe feed
The home page runs through every entry once, in an order meant to be worth reading from the top. Each entry is placed in advance in one of three tiers by how widely it is known, judged first from a year of Wikipedia readership and then by hand, and the funny ones are marked separately. The feed deals them in fives: two of the best known, one of the funny ones, one from the middle, and one obscure. So the famous and the funny come first, and no five go by without something you are unlikely to have met.
The order is drawn from the date, so every reader sees the same opening on the same day, and the first card is the day’s entry. A reload picks up where you were. Shuffle in the top bar deals you a private order, and Today’s order puts the shared one back. When the run is finished it says so, rather than starting again without telling you.
VIISearch
Search covers the name, every other name, the thinker and the definition, and once you start typing it adds the worked case and both examples. That makes it forgiving: Kitty Genovese reaches the bystander effect, Hanoi reaches the cobra effect, Katy Freeway reaches induced demand, Concorde reaches the sunk cost fallacy, and bikeshedding reaches Parkinson. Every word you type has to match somewhere, and a match in a name counts for most.
- Register Four buttons. The fastest way to separate testable claims from sayings.
- Subject The same categories the subject pages use.
- Type The ten kinds of claim listed above.
- Standing Everything, contested only, no dispute recorded, in jest only, or leave out in jest.
- Starred Only what you have kept.
With nothing typed, search lists every entry alphabetically, narrowed by whatever you have chosen. The address changes as you go, so any search can be bookmarked or sent, and each subject page links to search with its subject already chosen.
The strip on the subjects page is a half-century histogram. It reads as a long flat plain from 500 BC and then a cliff at 1950, which is the honest shape of the record rather than a design choice.
VIIIFavourites
Tap the star on any card or entry page to keep it. The entry lights gold, and it shows as starred everywhere else it appears.
Favourites are saved in this browser’s own storage rather than in a cookie. No identifier is written, and unlike a cookie this store is never transmitted with a request, so nothing about what you have kept leaves the device. The record is a fixed characters whether you star a single entry or every one of them, which is why adding to the ledger never disturbs what you have saved.
Stars are shared across the whole site: the feed, the subject pages, the entry pages and search all read the same record, and two tabs open at once stay in step with each other.
To see only what you have kept, choose Starred only on the search page. To move favourites to another browser, open Back up or restore my favourites at the foot of the search page, copy the text and paste it there. If your browser blocks site storage the stars still work for the visit; that panel will tell you, so you can copy the text before closing the page.
For what the ledger is for, why it is graded this way, and what an empiriceme is, read What is empiricalism? Otherwise, start with the feed.