We overestimate technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.
Amara's law explains why both technology hype and technology dismissal look foolish in retrospect. The internet in 1999 and the internet in 2015 are the same prediction judged at two points on the curve.
In practice
- A firm dismisses a technology after a disappointing pilot, then finds the market gone eight years later when the thing finally works.
- A city rejects a bike lane network on the first year's usage figures, which is the year with the least network.