An initial number biases later numerical judgements even when it is known to be arbitrary.
Tversky and Kahneman had subjects spin a wheel rigged to stop at 10 or 65, then estimate the percentage of African countries in the UN. The wheel moved answers by 20 points. Asking price does the same work in negotiation.
In practice
- A salary negotiation opens at £58,000 and settles near it, whatever either side privately thought the role was worth.
- A builder's first quote sets the frame for every later conversation, including the one where you feel you have won a discount.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Decision-making & Reasoning
- Essay
- The catalogue of predictable errors