Empiriceme · Model · Theory / Model

Bass Diffusion Model

Adoption is driven by innovators responding to outside influence plus imitators responding to prior adopters.

Bass published it in 1969, and it forecast colour television adoption well enough to become standard in market research. The two parameters separate advertising-driven from word-of-mouth-driven uptake.

In practice

  • A new payroll system is adopted by two divisions on the finance director's insistence and by eleven more because those two adopted it.
  • A neighbourhood app spreads to three streets through leaflets and to the rest of the town because three streets are on it.
Further reading
Wikipedia
Subject
Networks & Collective Behavior
Essay
How connections shape what crowds do

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