People can believe they hold a belief while making none of the predictions it implies, and act on the second while sincerely professing the first.
The diagnostic is anticipation again. Yudkowsky's illustration is a man who says a dragon lives in his garage and has an explanation ready for every test that would detect one, which means he is arranging his expectations around its absence while professing its presence. The state is not hypocrisy: the professing is sincere and the anticipations are separate.
In practice
- An organisation that sincerely believes its product is best does not behave as though a competitor could not win the account.
- A person who says the meeting could be an email attends it and schedules the next one.