Dale–Krueger Finding

Dale and Krueger compared students admitted to the same colleges who chose differently, in a 2002 paper and a 2014 follow-up using administrative earnings records. For most, the more selective college added nothing measurable to average earnings: the ability and ambition that won admission did the work. For Black and Hispanic students and the children of less-educated parents, the selective college did raise earnings.

In practice

• A family remortgages for the more prestigious offer when their daughter's own record was what employers were going to pay for.
• Two friends admitted to the same elite university make different choices, and ten years later earn much the same.

Possible explanations

One explanation is selection: the ambition and ability that win admission produce the later earnings, not the college. Another is that employers can observe those qualities directly, so the credential adds little for candidates who have alternatives.

In its favour

The design is unusually strong, comparing students admitted to the same colleges who chose differently, and the 2014 follow-up used administrative earnings records rather than self-reports.

Against it

Chetty, Deming and Friedman found in 2023 that elite colleges markedly raise the chance of reaching the very top of the distribution even where average earnings are unaffected, so the result holds at the average and not in the tail.

Standing

Chetty, Deming and Friedman found in 2023 that Ivy-Plus colleges have little effect on average earnings but make students markedly more likely to reach the top 1 per cent of earners, attend an elite graduate school and work at a prestigious firm, outcomes Dale and Krueger's data could not see. The finding holds for the average and not at the top.

Subject

Learning & Education

Essay

What works in learning, and what schools can and cannot change