Empiriceme · Evidence · Empirical Regularity

Ehrenberg's Double Jeopardy Law

Small brands suffer twice: they have fewer buyers, and those buyers are also less loyal.

Small brands' apparent loyalty problem is a mathematical consequence of their size, not a failure of their marketing. It is the most consistently replicated finding in marketing science.

In practice

  • A challenger brand's low repeat-purchase rate is read as a loyalty failure, and is what a brand of that size mathematically must show.
  • A small charity's donor retention looks poor against a national one, and would look identical however well it was run.
Standing
Loyalty is largely a consequence of market share, not a route to it.
Subject
Economics & Incentives
Essay
The regularities money obeys

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