Forecasters who hold many loose models beat those who apply one grand theory.
Tetlock's twenty-year forecasting tournament found the best predictors held many small models loosely, while single-framework experts did worse than chance on their own specialities.
In practice
- A forecaster who tracks eleven weak indicators beats one who applies a single elegant theory of the cycle.
- A doctor who holds four possible diagnoses loosely outperforms one committed to the most interesting.