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Galton's Problem

Also called Cross-cultural non-independence; cultural autocorrelation

Cross-cultural cases are often not independent, because related or neighbouring societies share traits through descent, diffusion and contact.

Galton raised the objection at a meeting of the Royal Anthropological Institute in 1889, after Tylor presented correlations across hundreds of societies: if the societies inherited or borrowed the trait from one another, they are not independent observations and the sample size is a fiction. The problem has never gone away, and every modern cross-cultural study has to say how it handles it.

In practice

  • A survey of forty firms in one industry that all copied the same consultancy has one observation with thirty-nine echoes.
  • A finding replicated across twelve European countries has been replicated across one civilisation.
Subject
Science & Epistemology
Essay
How knowledge grows, and how inquiry fools itself

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