Haitz forecast that over roughly decade intervals LED output would rise about twentyfold while cost per lumen fell about tenfold.
Haitz's forecast tracked early solid-state-lighting progress surprisingly well, which is why LED lighting moved from indicator lamps to general illumination in about two decades. The economics changed before the technology looked ready.
In practice
- A warehouse that fitted fluorescent tubes in 2008 and LEDs in 2018 cut its lighting bill by four-fifths without anyone proposing a lighting project.
- Street lighting that was uneconomic to run all night in 2005 became cheaper than the switching gear to dim it.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Technology & Software
- Essay
- How technologies spread, scale, decay and frighten us