In a calm state people cannot model how hunger, anger, fear or arousal will drive them, and in a hot state they cannot recall being calm.
Loewenstein's finding is why plans made calm fail hot: the shopper who ate before shopping cannot model the shopper who did not. Frequently miscredited to Hardin.
In practice
- A team plans a migration cutover calmly for six weeks and, at 2am with the rollback window closing, makes the decision nobody modelled.
- A person who has decided to keep to a budget shops while hungry and cannot reconstruct the reasoning afterwards.
- Standing
- Frequently miscredited to Hardin.
- Subject
- Psychology & Behavior
- Essay
- A century and a half of measuring the mind