Empiriceme · Evidence · Theorem

Hotelling–Downs Median Voter Theorem

In a one-dimensional policy space with single-peaked preferences and majority rule, outcomes converge on the median voter.

Hotelling's 1929 ice cream vendors on a beach both move to the centre; Black proved the median-voter result for single-peaked preferences in 1948, and Downs developed spatial party competition in 1957. The convergence version also assumes two vote-maximising candidates, and it fails where turnout, primaries or multiple parties change the incentive.

In practice

  • Two supermarket chains open branches on the same corner and sell nearly identical ranges.
  • Two candidates for a leadership post arrive at almost identical platforms by the final hustings, having started far apart.
Subject
Law & Politics
Essay
What can be proved and measured about power

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