For non-perishable things such as ideas and technologies, remaining life expectancy grows with age already survived.
Formalised by Mandelbrot and Taleb. A technology in use for 50 years can be expected to last another 50; one that arrived last year probably will not. It applies only to non-perishables — the reverse holds for humans.
In practice
- A book still in print after two centuries is a safer recommendation than one that appeared in the spring.
- A restaurant open since 1970 is a better bet for next decade than the one that opened last spring, and this reverses for the chefs.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Science & Epistemology
- Essay
- The ways evidence misleads