Most favorable predictions about the future fall within the speaker's expected lifespan.
Named by Garreau for Pattie Maes, who noticed that AI researchers predicted human-level machines shortly before their own retirement. It applies to immortality, singularity and fusion predictions alike.
In practice
- An AI researcher of 50 predicts human-level machines in 25 years; the same researcher at 35 predicted 40.
- Fusion, longevity and general intelligence forecasts cluster suspiciously near the forecaster's retirement.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Decision-making & Reasoning
- Essay
- Paradoxes that broke theories, and sayings that outlived them