If errors are independent and unbiased, a largely uninformed electorate can still produce accurate collective judgements.
It fails exactly when errors are correlated, which is the usual case where media supply a common frame. The miracle requires independence, and shared information destroys it.
In practice
- A referendum on a technical question can still aggregate well if the errors are scattered.
- A poll taken the morning after every outlet ran the same headline reflects the headline, and the average of many wrong answers is still wrong.
- Standing
- Fails when errors are correlated, which researchers of media environments find is common there.
- Subject
- Networks & Collective Behavior
- Essay
- How connections shape what crowds do