Empiriceme · Model · Theory / Model

Normalization of Deviance

Small departures from standard that pass without consequence become the new standard, until they do not.

Vaughan's 1996 study of the Challenger decision. O-ring erosion was observed on prior flights, tolerated, and became the expected condition — so the launch decision was made against a standard that had already moved.

In practice

  • A team that has skipped the pre-deploy check forty times without incident no longer regards skipping it as skipping anything.
  • A ward that has run one nurse short for two years has redefined the establishment, and the staffing paper reports full compliance.
Further reading
Wikipedia
Subject
Risk & Reliability
Essay
How accidents actually happen

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