Empiriceme · Figure · Adage / Folk Law

Osborn's Law

Variables won't, constants aren't.

From the Murphy's law canon, and a warning about model inputs: parameters assumed fixed will drift, and parameters assumed to vary will turn out to have been fixed by something nobody documented.

In practice

  • A model whose "fixed" exchange rate assumption held for eleven years breaks in month one of the forecast.
  • A capacity plan built on a constant conversion rate is invalidated when the marketing mix changes, and the constant was never a constant.
Subject
Technology & Software
Essay
The programmers' folklore, and technology's place in society

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