Empiriceme · Evidence · Bias / Effect

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Also called False cause

Treating sequence as causation; the earlier event is taken to have produced the later one.

Classical logic. The rooster crows and the sun rises. Most medical folk remedies rest on it, since most conditions resolve regardless of what was taken.

In practice

  • A cold clears four days after the remedy is taken, which is also how long a cold takes.
  • A team changes its process, the next quarter is better, and the market also turned — and the process change is credited.
Further reading
Wikipedia
Subject
Decision-making & Reasoning
Essay
The catalogue of predictable errors

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