Where a field adopts the appearance of measurement without the underlying constancy, its confidence outruns its warrant.
Hayek's 1974 Nobel lecture. His target was macroeconomics adopting the form of physics without its constancies, and the argument applies to any field where measurement outpaces theory.
In practice
- A model with fourteen estimated parameters forecasts next year's demand to the nearest thousand units, and has never come within 20%.
- A performance management system that produces a score to one decimal place has adopted the appearance of measurement without the underlying stability.
- Subject
- Science & Epistemology
- Essay
- Rules for weighing claims