Having been victimised is among the strongest predictors of being victimised again, and the elevated risk is concentrated in the weeks immediately afterwards.
Burglary studies found that a burgled property's risk of a further burglary is several times the baseline and decays over roughly six weeks. The mechanism is partly that the offender learned the layout and what remains, and partly that whatever made the target suitable has not changed. The practical consequence is a narrow window in which prevention is unusually efficient.
In practice
- A firm that has been defrauded once and changes nothing is a known-good target with a documented route in.
- A household burgled in March is at its highest risk in April, and the insurer's advice arrives in June.