Predatory crime requires a motivated offender, a suitable target and the absence of a capable guardian to converge in time and place, so crime rates can move without any change in motivation.
Cohen and Felson's 1979 paper explained a puzzle: American crime rose through the 1960s while conditions usually blamed for it improved. Their answer was that daily routines had changed. More households empty during the day, more portable valuables, more time spent away from home. The supply of opportunities moved, and motivation did not have to.
In practice
- An office that moves to hybrid working finds its burglaries cluster on the days the building is quiet.
- A shop that relocates its small high-value stock away from the door changes its losses without changing its customers.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Law & Politics
- Essay
- Competing accounts of how power works