Solar module price falls about 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume.
A specific case of Wright's law. Solar module prices fell roughly 99.6% between 1976 and 2019, which is why forecasts consistently underestimated deployment for two decades.
In practice
- A utility that priced a twenty-year contract on today's module cost finds itself uncompetitive by year six.
- A country that subsidised early deployment paid above the odds for its first gigawatt and bought the price fall for everyone who came after.
- Standing
- A specific case of Wright's law.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Technology & Software
- Essay
- The curves, the limits and the laws of software