Empiriceme · Precept · Normative Principle

Tinbergen Rule

Achieving N policy targets generally requires at least N instruments.

Tinbergen's 1952 rule. A central bank with one instrument cannot target both inflation and employment independently, which is why dual mandates require either more instruments or an accepted trade-off.

In practice

  • A council with one budget cannot cut the precept and expand a service at once, whatever the manifesto promised.
  • A manager with one lever — headcount — cannot simultaneously hit a cost target and a delivery date, and will be judged on both.
Subject
Economics & Incentives
Essay
Rules for choosing, and the paradoxes that humbled the theory

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