An unbroken record of safety is weak evidence of safety when the record itself built the exposure.
Taleb's illustration: 1,000 days of reliable feeding are the strongest possible evidence right up to the afternoon before Thanksgiving. The record itself is what created the exposure.
In practice
- A bridge that has carried every load for sixty years is inspected less often each decade, and the record is the reason.
- A supplier's flawless four-year record is partly the reason your exposure to them is now large enough to be dangerous.