Decision-as-Destiny Principle

The claim is attractive because it is actionable and misleading in proportion to how attractive it is. The evidence on cumulative advantage, opportunity hoarding and social closure describes outcomes shaped by position and by compounding, and the decisions available to a person are themselves largely set by that position.

In practice

• Two people making the identical decision from different starting positions get different outcomes, reliably.
• A doctrine that locates outcomes in decisions has explained success to the successful.

Possible explanations

The explanation offered is that a decision commits a person to a path whose later steps follow, so the moment of choosing carries the weight. The researched version is narrower: implementation intentions convert a decision into behaviour by specifying when and where.

In its favour

Commitment devices and specific plans do improve follow-through, which is the defensible core.

Against it

Research on cumulative advantage, opportunity hoarding and social class finds circumstances explaining much of what the principle assigns to moments of decision, and the evidence offered is testimonial and selected on success.

Standing

Testimonial evidence selected on success, with no comparison group. Contradicted in emphasis by research on situational influence, on cumulative advantage and on the structural determinants of life outcomes, all of which find circumstance doing a great deal of the work.

Subject

Decision-making & Reasoning

Essay

Paradoxes that broke theories, and sayings that outlived them