When everyone forecasts the same congestion from the same information, the forecast defeats itself and no shared rule can be right.
Arthur's 1994 problem, modelled on a Santa Fe bar with live music. If everyone predicts it will be crowded, nobody goes and it is empty; the absence of a stable rule is the result, not a failure of the modelling.
In practice
- Every team schedules its deploy for the quiet Tuesday window, and Tuesday becomes the busiest deploy day.
- Everyone leaves for the beach on the bank holiday Monday because Sunday will be busy, and Monday is worse.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Games & Strategic Interaction
- Essay
- The recurring shapes of conflict and cooperation