Empiriceme · Model · Theory / Model

Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs

The most moderate members leave a group first, so each departure radicalises the remainder and prompts the next.

Yudkowsky's 2007 term. The mechanism is selection: whoever is least committed finds each successive position hardest to accept, so departures are ordered by moderation.

In practice

  • A campaign group's most pragmatic organiser resigns, which makes the next meeting less pragmatic, which prompts the next resignation.
  • A book club that reads increasingly demanding texts loses its casual members, which frees it to choose harder texts.
Standing
The belief-dynamics counterpart of the Dead Sea effect.
Subject
Networks & Collective Behavior
Essay
How connections shape what crowds do

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