Empiriceme · Evidence · Empirical Regularity

Gilder's Law

Communications bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computing power.

Gilder's law drove the fibre buildout of the late 1990s and the overcapacity that followed. The prediction was right about the technology and disastrous about the timing.

In practice

  • A rural office that could barely email in 1998 is streaming video by 2008 on infrastructure nobody upgraded for that purpose.
  • A telecoms company builds capacity for a decade of demand and is bankrupt before the demand arrives, having been right about everything but timing.
Subject
Technology & Software
Essay
The curves, the limits and the laws of software

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