The number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
Moore's original 1965 projection was approximately annual doubling of component count; in 1975 he revised the forward cadence to roughly two years. It functioned as a coordinating target for the industry rather than a natural law, which is part of why it held for so long.
In practice
- A supplier who cannot meet the next node's specification loses the contract, and that specification was set by a curve rather than by physics.
- Chipmakers planned capital expenditure against it, so the forecast helped produce the outcome it forecast.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Technology & Software
- Essay
- The curves, the limits and the laws of software