Empiriceme · Evidence · Bias / Effect

Silver Bullet Fallacy

Also called No silver bullet

Belief that a single solution can solve complex problems.

Named from Brooks's 1986 essay No Silver Bullet, which argued no single development improvement would yield an order-of-magnitude gain. Nearly forty years of tooling have largely borne that out.

In practice

  • A team that adopts a new framework every year is as fast as it was in 2015, and each adoption was justified on its own.
  • An organisation that buys a new project tool every two years has made forty small improvements and no order-of-magnitude one.
Subject
Decision-making & Reasoning
Essay
The catalogue of predictable errors

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