Those who make decisions should bear a share of the downside, or their judgement cannot be trusted.
Taleb's 2018 argument. Its sharp form is that advice is only credible from someone exposed to being wrong, which is why forecaster track records matter more than forecaster credentials.
In practice
- A builder who guarantees his own roof for ten years quotes differently from one who subcontracts and moves on.
- A consultant who recommends a restructure and leaves before it is implemented has given advice at no risk, which is information about the advice.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Decision-making & Reasoning
- Essay
- Razors, rules and the tools of careful thought