People misstate private views under social pressure, so a regime that looks stable can collapse without warning.
Kuran's 1995 argument. It explains why the 1989 collapses surprised everyone including participants: private opposition was widespread and invisible, so nobody could estimate how many others would move.
In practice
- A ballot on an unpopular policy passes unanimously, and the anonymous survey a month later finds two-thirds against.
- A team where nobody will say the deadline is impossible produces a plan every member privately rejects, and the collapse looks sudden from outside.
- Standing
- The dictator's dilemma is the ruler's side of the same problem.
- Further reading
- Wikipedia
- Subject
- Networks & Collective Behavior
- Essay
- How connections shape what crowds do